🚨 New Rule in Effect: USCIS replaced the random H-1B lottery with a wage-weighted system on February 27, 2026 (FY2027 cap).
✅ Data current as of April 2026·Source: Federal Register 90 FR 60864 (Feb 27, 2026)
FY2027 Cap · New System
H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator 2026 Wage-Weighted System
The H-1B lottery changed forever. Select your DOL Wage Level to instantly see your selection odds under the new system.
📊 DHS Federal Register projections⚡ Instant results🔒 No sign-up required📱 Mobile-friendly
⚖️ What Changed
On February 27, 2026, USCIS published a final rule (90 FR 60864) replacing the random H-1B lottery with a wage-weighted selection system for the FY2027 cap.
Registrations are now ranked by DOL Prevailing Wage Level — higher-wage workers receive more entries and dramatically better odds, while entry-level workers see odds cut nearly in half.
🎲 Calculate Your Lottery Odds
Select the DOL Prevailing Wage Level that matches your position
Your DOL Wage Level
Estimated Selection Probability
—%
Your odds
Old system
~34%
—
Lottery Entries
~34%
Old System Odds
—
vs. Old System
—
📋 H-1B Odds by Wage Level — Full Comparison
Wage Level
Entries
New Odds (2026)
Old Odds (Random)
Change
Salary Percentile
Level I — Entry
1×
~15%
~34%
▼ −56% relative
Bottom 17th percentile
Level II — Qualified
2×
~29–31%
~34%
▼ ~Flat (slight dip)
34th percentile
Level III — Experienced
3×
~44–46%
~34%
▲ +35% relative
50th percentile (median)
Level IV — Expert
4×
~60–61%
~34%
▲ +79% relative
67th+ percentile
💰 What Does Each Wage Level Mean?
Level
DOL Definition
Typical Profile
Example Roles
Level I
Entry-level; minimal experience; routine tasks under close supervision
Recent grad, 0–1 year exp
Junior developer, analyst trainee
Level II
Qualified; uses judgment, some specialization; normal supervision
Note: Wage levels are determined by your employer based on actual job duties and the prevailing wage for the occupation/location — not self-selected. The level must accurately reflect the role. USCIS scrutinizes mismatches between wage level and actual duties as a basis for RFE or denial.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
USCIS replaced the random computer lottery with a wage-weighted selection system, effective for the FY2027 H-1B cap (March 2026 registration period). Under the old system, every registration had an equal ~34% chance of selection. Under the new system, each registration is assigned a weight (1–4) equal to its DOL Prevailing Wage Level. The lottery is run proportionally to these weights, meaning higher-wage positions are selected at higher rates. This was published as a final rule in the Federal Register (90 FR 60864) and went into effect February 27, 2026.
No. The odds are DHS projections based on estimated total registration volume and the wage level distribution of expected registrants (published in the Federal Register 90 FR 60864). Actual results depend on how many total registrations USCIS receives, the actual wage level mix, and USCIS's final cap allocation. In high-registration years, all odds drop proportionally. These are the best available estimates from the rulemaking record.
Yes, but it carries significant risk. The wage level must genuinely reflect the actual job duties and be supported by the LCA and job description. Filing at Level III or IV while the role is entry-level is considered wage level inflation — a recognized basis for USCIS RFE and denial. If USCIS determines the wage level doesn't match the duties, the petition can be rejected outright. Always consult a qualified immigration attorney before adjusting wage levels.
Yes. Positions at qualifying cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofit research organizations, government research organizations) are not subject to the H-1B cap or this lottery. These petitions can be filed year-round without going through the lottery. Cap-exempt employment is one of the most reliable paths for H-1B workers who don't win the lottery.
With ~15% odds at Level I, most Level I registrations will not be selected. Alternatives include: (1) OPT/STEM OPT extension — up to 3 years of work authorization; (2) TN visa for Canadian/Mexican nationals; (3) O-1 visa if you have extraordinary ability; (4) cap-exempt employment at a university or nonprofit; (5) employer sponsorship in Canada or another country; (6) registering again in the next fiscal year. Use our Visa Finder to explore all options.
Congress sets a statutory H-1B cap of 65,000 regular cap visas per fiscal year, plus 20,000 U.S. Master's Cap exemptions for petitioners with a U.S. advanced degree. When USCIS receives more registrations than the cap allows (which has been true every year since 2007), a lottery is run. The new wage-weighted system does not change the total number of visas available — it only changes how winners are selected from the pool.
Know Your Odds — Now Understand Your Case
Winning the lottery is step one. Get a full H-1B eligibility analysis with RFE risk scoring, wage level deep-dive, and green card pathway — all in one $49 PDF report.
Disclaimer: Odds are DHS projections based on estimated registration volume published in Federal Register 90 FR 60864 (February 27, 2026). Actual selection rates depend on total FY2027 registrations received. This tool is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for guidance specific to your situation.